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The Zacks Consensus Estimate for first-quarter 2026 earnings is currently pegged at $4.37 per share, which has decreased by a penny over the past 30 days. The figure indicates an increase of 9.25% reported in the year-ago quarter.
The consensus mark for first-quarter 2026 revenues is pegged at $834.81 million, suggesting an increase of 11.93% from the year-ago quarter’s reported number.
MSCI’s earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in each of the trailing four quarters, with the average surprise being 1.69%.
Let’s see how things are likely to have shaped up for the upcoming announcement.
Factors Likely to Have Influenced MSCI’s Q1 Performance
MSCI is expected to have benefited in the first quarter of 2026 from its strong recurring revenue base and global client base, along with ETF/Index-linked fee growth and rising private markets demand.
MSCI’s Index business is expected to have remained a key growth driver in the first quarter of 2026. The company has seen strong momentum in asset-based fee run-rate growth, particularly in equity ETFs linked to MSCI indexes, which captured $67 billion in inflows in the fourth quarter, totaling $204 billion for the full-year 2025. The demand for ETFs linked to MSCI developed markets ex-U.S. indexes and emerging markets indexes has been robust, and this trend is likely to have continued in the to-be-reported quarter.
MSCI is actively deepening its penetration into newer client segments, including hedge funds, wealth managers, banks, broker-dealers and asset owners. The company has seen significant growth in recurring net-new subscription sales across these segments, with hedge funds posting a record 26% growth in the fourth quarter of 2025. A notable deal during the quarter involved the index rebalancing team at a leading global hedge fund adopting MSCI’s extended custom index module, which covers nearly 5000 customer indices. This underscores the rising demand for MSCI’s index ecosystem and the need for more advanced tools among sophisticated investors.
In the wealth management segment, MSCI reported subscription run rate growth of nearly 11%, with recurring sales increasing about 15%. This growth is being driven by the broader adoption of MSCI’s index and analytics solutions across home offices and wealth platforms of large investment managers. This trend is likely to have continued in the to-be-reported quarter.
MSCI is leveraging AI across its operations, from data capture to product development. The company has already seen significant cost savings and efficiency improvements, with AI helping to scale data collection and enhance investment and risk models. AI reduces reliance on manual work and enables faster creation of custom indices and greater scalability for clients. AI enables new offerings such as private credit analytics and total portfolio insights, while expanding MSCI’s capabilities beyond traditional ESG into broader risk analytics. The company expects AI to play a critical role in reducing operating costs while enabling the development of new solutions, which are likely to have contributed to the first-quarter performance.
Macro uncertainty, along with muted demand for sustainability and climate solutions, remains a concern. Softness in real assets, selective retention pressure, a slight revenue miss indicating uneven growth, structural challenges in active asset management and early-stage monetization of AI pose a risk. These factors are expected to have affected revenue growth in the to-be-reported quarter.
What Our Model Says About MSCI
Per the Zacks model, the combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. But that’s not the exact case here.
MSCI has an Earnings ESP of +2.38% and a Zacks Rank #3. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Other Stocks to Consider
Here are some other companies worth considering, as our model shows that these have the right combination of elements to beat on earnings this reporting cycle:
View the Zacks #1 Rank List
Image: Bigstock
MSCI Set to Post Q1 Earnings: What's in Store for the Stock?
Key Takeaways
MSCI (MSCI - Free Report) is set to report its first-quarter 2026 results on April 21.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for first-quarter 2026 earnings is currently pegged at $4.37 per share, which has decreased by a penny over the past 30 days. The figure indicates an increase of 9.25% reported in the year-ago quarter.
The consensus mark for first-quarter 2026 revenues is pegged at $834.81 million, suggesting an increase of 11.93% from the year-ago quarter’s reported number.
MSCI’s earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in each of the trailing four quarters, with the average surprise being 1.69%.
MSCI Inc Price and EPS Surprise
MSCI Inc price-eps-surprise | MSCI Inc Quote
Let’s see how things are likely to have shaped up for the upcoming announcement.
Factors Likely to Have Influenced MSCI’s Q1 Performance
MSCI is expected to have benefited in the first quarter of 2026 from its strong recurring revenue base and global client base, along with ETF/Index-linked fee growth and rising private markets demand.
MSCI’s Index business is expected to have remained a key growth driver in the first quarter of 2026. The company has seen strong momentum in asset-based fee run-rate growth, particularly in equity ETFs linked to MSCI indexes, which captured $67 billion in inflows in the fourth quarter, totaling $204 billion for the full-year 2025. The demand for ETFs linked to MSCI developed markets ex-U.S. indexes and emerging markets indexes has been robust, and this trend is likely to have continued in the to-be-reported quarter.
MSCI is actively deepening its penetration into newer client segments, including hedge funds, wealth managers, banks, broker-dealers and asset owners. The company has seen significant growth in recurring net-new subscription sales across these segments, with hedge funds posting a record 26% growth in the fourth quarter of 2025. A notable deal during the quarter involved the index rebalancing team at a leading global hedge fund adopting MSCI’s extended custom index module, which covers nearly 5000 customer indices. This underscores the rising demand for MSCI’s index ecosystem and the need for more advanced tools among sophisticated investors.
In the wealth management segment, MSCI reported subscription run rate growth of nearly 11%, with recurring sales increasing about 15%. This growth is being driven by the broader adoption of MSCI’s index and analytics solutions across home offices and wealth platforms of large investment managers. This trend is likely to have continued in the to-be-reported quarter.
MSCI is leveraging AI across its operations, from data capture to product development. The company has already seen significant cost savings and efficiency improvements, with AI helping to scale data collection and enhance investment and risk models. AI reduces reliance on manual work and enables faster creation of custom indices and greater scalability for clients. AI enables new offerings such as private credit analytics and total portfolio insights, while expanding MSCI’s capabilities beyond traditional ESG into broader risk analytics. The company expects AI to play a critical role in reducing operating costs while enabling the development of new solutions, which are likely to have contributed to the first-quarter performance.
Macro uncertainty, along with muted demand for sustainability and climate solutions, remains a concern. Softness in real assets, selective retention pressure, a slight revenue miss indicating uneven growth, structural challenges in active asset management and early-stage monetization of AI pose a risk. These factors are expected to have affected revenue growth in the to-be-reported quarter.
What Our Model Says About MSCI
Per the Zacks model, the combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. But that’s not the exact case here.
MSCI has an Earnings ESP of +2.38% and a Zacks Rank #3. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Other Stocks to Consider
Here are some other companies worth considering, as our model shows that these have the right combination of elements to beat on earnings this reporting cycle:
Ameris Bancorp (ABCB - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +0.33% and a Zacks Rank #2 at present. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
Ameris Bancorp shares have gained 11.3% in the year-to-date period. ABCB is likely to report its first-quarter 2026 results on April 23.
Bread Financial (BFH - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +4.78% and a Zacks Rank #2.
Bread Financial shares have gained 12.3% in the year-to-date period. BFH is set to report first-quarter 2026 results on April 23.
Popular (BPOP - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +3.78% and a Zacks Rank #2.
Popular shares have gained 16.4% in the year-to-date period. BPOP is likely to report its first-quarter 2026 results on April 23.